香港科技大学地缘经济研究所所长金刻羽：全球化在经历重构，想封锁技术和知识已不再可能

Core Insights - The event "2026: Predictions and Strategies" emphasizes the theme of "China's Resilience in Changing Circumstances" amidst the deep integration of geopolitics and economics, which are now core factors influencing corporate strategies and national policies [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Integration - Geopolitical and economic factors have become deeply intertwined, significantly affecting corporate strategies and national policies, moving beyond mere background noise [3][4] - The decline in trade barriers over the past decades has been reversed recently, with rising signals of fragmentation in trade, finance, and political realms [4][5] - The awareness of geopolitical risks among corporations has increased, with discussions around reshoring and nearshoring becoming more prevalent [4][5] Group 2: Trade Dependencies and Shifts - Western countries' trade dependency on China continues to rise, contrary to the narrative of trade friction, while China's dependency on Western economies is decreasing [5][6] - The shift in dependency is moving towards resource-rich countries like Brazil, Australia, and Indonesia, indicating a gradual detachment from Western economies [5][6] Group 3: New Economic Connectors - The emergence of "super connectors" such as Vietnam and Mexico plays a crucial role in facilitating trade between the U.S. and China, despite a decline in direct trade [7][8] - Increased trade with third countries correlates with heightened trade between those countries and the U.S., showcasing a new indirect connection model [8][9] Group 4: Challenges of Coordination Among Alliances - Coordination among allied nations is proving difficult, as seen in the inconsistent application of sanctions against Russia, highlighting the complexities of global networks [11][12] - The effectiveness of financial sanctions is limited, and without coordinated efforts among allied nations, such strategies may not achieve their intended outcomes [11][12] Group 5: Effects of Sanctions and Innovation - Sanctions often lead to counterproductive effects, with companies increasing R&D investments when placed on entity lists, resulting in a rise in domestic patent applications [12][13] - The inability to effectively block technology transfer is evident, as knowledge networks have become highly decentralized, making it challenging to contain technological advancements [13][14] Group 6: Future Directions - Maintaining openness and deepening global engagement is crucial for China to solidify its position as an indispensable hub in the global network [15]