Geopolitical Tensions Support Crude Oil Prices

Group 1: Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices - January WTI crude oil is up by 0.57 (+1.02%), and January RBOB gasoline is up by 0.0134 (+0.79%) amid rising geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, along with a positive stock market rally boosting economic outlook and energy demand [1] - Crude oil and gasoline prices previously slumped to 4.75-year nearest-futures lows due to concerns about global energy demand and expectations for a worldwide oil glut [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Sanctions - Escalation of global geopolitical tensions, including a total blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela ordered by President Trump, is supportive for crude prices [2] - The US is considering increasing sanctions on Russian energy exports and targeting Russia's shadow fleet if President Putin rejects a peace agreement with Ukraine [2] - Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries, exacerbating fuel shortages in Russia and limiting crude export capabilities [4] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ announced plans to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026, following a production increase of 137,000 bpd in December, due to an emerging global oil surplus [5] - The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, with OPEC+ aiming to restore 2.2 million bpd of production cuts made in early 2024, leaving 1.2 million bpd still to restore [5] - OPEC's crude production fell by 10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd in November [5]