两位数回报之后，新兴市场：新的避险天堂，还是短暂繁荣？

Core Insights - Emerging markets are expected to deliver double-digit returns in 2025, despite global uncertainties, as investors anticipate a repeat of this year's performance [1] - The combination of sound policies and favorable conditions has contributed to the stability of emerging market assets amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The return of former President Trump has created market volatility, yet his erratic trade policies have made emerging markets appear more stable [2] - Investors are diversifying their portfolios beyond the U.S., seeking global diversification due to years of capital outflows from emerging markets [2] - Significant changes in the fundamentals of emerging markets have occurred, with countries like Turkey, Nigeria, and Egypt implementing reforms that have led to improved economic conditions [2] Group 2: Credit Ratings and Resilience - Emerging markets have shown resilience, with a second consecutive year of net credit rating upgrades, indicating improving fundamentals [3] - Emerging market central banks have demonstrated independence and sound policy-making, enhancing their credibility compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve [3] - The cautious monetary policies in emerging markets have led to strong performance of local currency bonds, with returns around 18% this year [3] Group 3: Opportunities Amid Uncertainty - Political uncertainties in countries like Hungary, Brazil, and Colombia may present opportunities for investors, as potential policy changes could create market movements [4] - Despite risks from the U.S. economy, emerging markets are less sensitive to U.S. economic fluctuations than in the past [7] - A recent survey indicates that pessimism towards emerging markets has vanished, with net sentiment reaching historical highs [7]