Sugar Prices Retreat as India May Boost Sugar Exports

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined to one-week lows due to expectations of increased sugar exports from India, as the government may allow additional exports to alleviate a domestic supply surplus [2] Group 1: Indian Sugar Market - India's food ministry announced a potential allowance for mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar in the 2025/26 season, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 due to reduced production from late rains [2] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production for the 2025/26 season, with estimates raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [4] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a 19% year-on-year increase in India's sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a decline of 17.5% in 2024/25 [5] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Market - The Brazilian real has weakened, reaching a 4.5-month low against the dollar, which is expected to boost export sales from Brazilian sugar producers [3] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT, indicating a positive outlook for sugar output [6] - Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with a higher percentage of cane crushed for sugar production [6]