【黄金年报】无估值、无上限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing demand for gold as a hedge against sovereign debt and currency credit risks, driven by the expansion of U.S. fiscal deficits and the shift towards diversified reserve assets amid geopolitical tensions [3][20][29] - The U.S. federal fiscal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, with public debt nearing 100% of GDP, marking a significant increase in fiscal pressure [7][19] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to decrease in 2026, which could lead to a reduction in tariff revenue and further exacerbate the fiscal deficit [27][28] Group 2 - Central banks globally have increased their gold reserves from 13% in 2021 to 26% in 2025, while the dollar's share has decreased from 50% to 39%, indicating a trend towards asset diversification [3][41] - Despite a significant rise in gold prices, central banks continue to exhibit a rigid buying behavior, with a net inflow of over 700 tons into gold ETFs in 2025, reversing a four-year trend of net outflows [31][37] - The demand for gold remains strong, with central banks purchasing 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a robust underlying demand despite price increases [40][41] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with recent employment data indicating a downward trend, which may influence future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [4][50] - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish signals and anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to drive further demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [52][55] - The structural changes in the U.S. fiscal landscape, including rising mandatory spending and interest payments, are likely to sustain upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek refuge from inflation and fiscal instability [19][29][26]