庞中鹏：日本“看向”中亚，背后有何考量

Core Insights - Japan's first summit with the five Central Asian countries is set to take place on December 19-20 in Tokyo, marking a significant diplomatic move towards the region [1] Group 1: Strategic Considerations - Energy resources are a primary concern for Japan's diplomatic efforts in Central Asia, as the region is rich in oil, gas, and rare metals, particularly uranium in Kazakhstan, which is crucial for Japan's nuclear energy and carbon neutrality goals [1] - Japan aims to align with the U.S. strategy in Central Asia, as evidenced by the timing of the summit shortly after the U.S. "C5+1" meeting, focusing on critical mineral supply chains [1] - The construction of a "Trans-Caspian" corridor is intended to facilitate trade between Central Asia and the Middle East, which is essential for Japan's economic cooperation with the region [1] - Strengthening ties with Central Asia may help Japan mitigate geopolitical pressures from Russia in the Far East, especially given the historical tensions and current state of Japan-Russia relations [1] Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Japan's high-level engagement with Central Asia has been limited, with only two prime ministers visiting the region in over 30 years, indicating a lack of sustained diplomatic focus [1] - The existing dialogue framework between Japan and Central Asia has seen slow progress, suggesting that Japan's efforts may be reactive rather than proactive [1] - The geopolitical complexity of Central Asia, influenced by Russia and China's interests, poses challenges for Japan's ambitions to enhance its influence in the region [1] - The proposed "Trans-Caspian" underwater tunnel project faces significant investment and logistical challenges, testing the capabilities of Japanese investors [1]