张瑜：摆脱“超常规”，春水向“中游”——张瑜旬度会议纪要No.128

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift from "extraordinary measures" to a more balanced approach in economic policy, focusing on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [4][5][15] - The economic work meeting indicates a more stable and slightly positive judgment on external conditions, with China maintaining a 5.4% export growth rate over the past 11 months, providing confidence to move away from extraordinary policy reliance [5][16] - The pressure to prevent risks has significantly decreased, with the focus on risk prevention now ranked ninth among key tasks, indicating a shift in policy focus towards reform and opening up [5][16] Group 2 - Fiscal support is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, with the 2026 budget's expenditure growth rate projected to align with economic growth targets, maintaining a deficit rate around 4% [6][17][18] - The policy focus is shifting from "insufficient domestic demand" to "strong supply and weak demand," indicating a dual approach to manage both supply and demand sides, with an emphasis on price stability [8][18] - The judgment on economic conditions for 2026 highlights the midstream manufacturing sector as the most promising, benefiting from strong export performance and policy support aimed at reducing competition [9][19][20] Group 3 - The investment strategy remains bullish on stocks while being cautiously strategic on bonds, driven by improving supply-demand balance and lower stock market volatility [11][21]