We ‘expect' gasoline and refined oil prices to ‘DECLINE', says top Goldman Sachs executive

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, leading to lower prices for crude oil and refined products, with WTI oil prices projected to average $52 per barrel, down from current levels [2][3]. Oil Market Analysis - WTI oil prices are forecasted to decline by approximately $4 per barrel from current levels, with gasoline and refined oil product prices expected to decrease even more due to strong margins that are anticipated to moderate [2]. - The oversupply in the oil market is attributed to consistent production levels and is not expected to change unless there are significant geopolitical disruptions or production cuts from OPEC [3]. - The average break-even price for US shale oil companies is around $50 per barrel, indicating that at $52, these companies may face revenue challenges [5]. Production and Efficiency - Despite lower prices, ongoing productivity and efficiency gains in the oil sector are leading to reduced costs for producers, which may mitigate some negative impacts of price declines on production [6]. - The resilience of supply in the US and other countries like Brazil and Guyana has been underestimated, contributing to the current oversupply situation [6]. Gold Market Insights - Gold is viewed as a favorable long-term investment, with expectations for prices to rise to $4,900 by the end of next year, driven by central bank buying and anticipated Federal Reserve cuts [8].