Sugar Prices Fall Sharply as India May Boost Sugar Exports

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined sharply, reaching one-week lows due to expectations of increased sugar exports from India, as the government may allow additional exports to alleviate a domestic supply surplus [2][5] - The Brazilian real's weakness is contributing to bearish sentiment in sugar prices, as it encourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [3] - Increased sugar production forecasts in both India and Brazil are exerting downward pressure on sugar prices [4][6] Group 1: India Sugar Production and Exports - India's food ministry announced a potential allowance for mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar in the 2025/26 season to address domestic supply issues [2] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, which is expected to boost export capabilities [4] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a 19% year-on-year increase in India's 2025/26 sugar production to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in the previous season [5] Group 2: Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, indicating a robust output that is likely to impact global sugar prices negatively [6] - Unica reported a 1.1% year-on-year increase in Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season, with a notable rise in the percentage of cane crushed for sugar production [6]