钨价年内狂飙220%创历史新高，最具弹性标的佳鑫国际（03858）或有10倍空间？

Core Viewpoint - The price of tungsten has surged significantly, leading to a bullish trend in the metal market, with Jaxin International (03858) being recognized as a key player benefiting from this price increase [1][2]. Group 1: Tungsten Price Dynamics - Tungsten prices have increased by 12%-18% weekly, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 200%, making it one of the most aggressively rising metals expected to continue this trend into 2025 [1][2]. - Key tungsten products have reached new highs, with black tungsten concentrate priced at 430,000 CNY per standard ton (up 15.3% week-on-week), ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 650,000 CNY per ton (up 17.1% week-on-week), and tungsten powder surpassing 1,030 CNY per kilogram (up 13.2% week-on-week) [2][3]. - The price surge is driven by tight supply and structural demand growth, with domestic mining quotas decreasing and limited overseas production to fill the gap [2][3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Demand for tungsten is increasing across various sectors, particularly in photovoltaics, military, and high-end manufacturing, with significant projected growth in tungsten usage for solar applications and military hard alloys [3]. - The implementation of export restrictions on tungsten products in China is expected to further elevate overseas prices [3]. Group 3: Jaxin International's Position - Jaxin International is recognized as the "elastic king" in the tungsten market due to its substantial open-pit tungsten mine and strategic partnerships with state-owned enterprises, ensuring efficient production and market positioning [4][5]. - The company has a significant resource base with 107 million tons of ore and a tungsten resource of 227,300 tons, making it the largest open-pit tungsten mine globally [5]. - Jaxin's production capacity is set to increase significantly, with targets of 1.205 million tons of tungsten concentrate in 2025 and 1.37 million tons by 2027, alongside a projected reduction in production costs [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Jaxin International's stock has seen a remarkable increase, with a historical high of 44.38 HKD per share, reflecting a 306% rise from its IPO price of 10.92 HKD [1][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of 5.5 to 6 billion CNY by 2027, based on projected production and price levels, indicating strong potential for future profitability [8][9]. - The market anticipates that Jaxin's stock could replicate the tenfold growth seen by Zijin Mining in 2021, driven by resource value reassessment and production capacity realization [9].