乘联会预计12月份新能源车渗透率可达60%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in December is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.4% but a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [1] - The estimated retail volume for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate expected to reach 60% [1] - According to a report from CMB International, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52% from January to September 2025, indicating a sustained growth trend in the NEV sector this year [1] Group 2 - CMB International also noted that the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 (from full exemption to half exemption) is likely to stimulate consumers to make concentrated purchases before the end of the year, combined with the peak sales seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" and year-end sales pushes by automakers [3] - However, CMB International cautioned that after the sales surge in the fourth quarter, the market is expected to enter a consumption lull, compounded by the adjustment of the purchase tax exemption policy, suggesting that investors should remain cautious [3]