图说研报 | 汽车投资的四条主线

Core Viewpoint - The new policies are expected to stimulate the automotive industry, leading to a significant increase in the sales growth of pure electric vehicles, surpassing hybrid vehicles, and a notable rise in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles [3][6]. Group 1: Sales Trends and Projections - From 2021 to October 2025, the retail sales trend of passenger cars shows a steady increase, with a notable rise in new energy vehicle penetration rates [3][5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 54% by 2025, with significant growth in the sales of pure electric vehicles [4][47]. - In the first ten months of 2025, the sales of self-owned brands increased to 66%, with brands like Geely, Xpeng, and Leap Motor showing outstanding performance [7][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic market for low-end vehicles is benefiting from the trade-in policy, with the fastest growth seen in vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan [12][14]. - In the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan segment, self-owned brands achieved a market share of 78%, driven by the new policies that promote the share of pure electric vehicles [14][19]. - The high-end market (above 300,000 yuan) is experiencing a decline in total volume, with hybrid vehicles becoming the main focus, led by brands like Silas and Li Auto [22][42]. Group 3: Export Growth and International Market - In the first nine months of 2025, the overseas sales of passenger cars grew by 7.4%, with brands like Chery and BYD performing well; the top three overseas markets for new energy vehicles are the EU, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America [31][42]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in overseas markets reached 12%, with a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points, driven by policy benefits and the supply of high-quality Chinese products [29][42]. - The European market is expected to see a significant increase in new energy vehicle penetration, with an estimated growth of 950,000 units, making it a crucial market for Chinese electric vehicle exports [42][43]. Group 4: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The new energy vehicle policies in Europe are expected to create favorable conditions for the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles, with significant subsidies and incentives for electric vehicles [34][45]. - The automotive industry is anticipated to face increased competition in 2026, with a focus on high-end passenger vehicles and the rapid development of large five/six-seat SUVs [38][42]. - The overall retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to slightly decrease by 1% to 24.05 million units in 2026, while export volumes are expected to increase by 21% to 6.6 million units [47].