Where is Copper Heading in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to continue rising, supported by both technical and fundamental factors, with a potential base forming around $5 per pound for further increases in 2026 [1]. Price Trends - As of November 17, 2025, COMEX copper futures were trading at $5.016 per pound, while three-month LME forwards were at $10,852 per metric ton. By mid-December 2025, futures exceeded $5.40 per pound and LME forwards surpassed $11,590 per ton [2]. Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs introduced in 2025 led to increased volatility in copper prices. The "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in April 2025 caused significant market fluctuations, with COMEX copper futures reaching record highs while LME forwards lagged behind [3]. - The price differential between U.S. copper in COMEX warehouses and LME copper reached a historical high, with U.S. copper trading at a premium. COMEX stocks surged by 388% from 93,161 tons at the end of 2024 to 454,638 tons by December 8, 2025, while LME inventories fell by 38.6% from 271,400 tons to 166,600 tons in the same period [3]. Market Dynamics - U.S. tariffs caused distortions that led to record highs in COMEX copper futures in March and July 2025, at $5.3740 and $5.9585 per pound, respectively [4]. - The LME forwards eventually caught up with COMEX futures, reaching a new high of $11,952 per ton in December 2025, validating the bullish outlook for copper despite earlier price depressions [6].