预售围城

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing trend of pre-sale in the fashion industry, highlighting consumer frustrations and the operational challenges faced by merchants due to extended pre-sale periods and high return rates [1][6][23]. Group 1: Consumer Experience - Consumers are increasingly frustrated with pre-sale items that take too long to ship, leading to cancellations and dissatisfaction with product quality [1][2][3]. - A survey of approximately 30 consumers revealed various issues with pre-sale purchases, including unpredictable shipping times and receiving incorrect or low-quality items [3][4]. - A significant percentage of consumers (78%) believe that pre-sale periods are lengthening, and 80% feel that extended pre-sale negatively impacts their shopping experience [16][21]. Group 2: Merchant Strategies - Merchants like "DuoDuo" utilize pre-sale as a strategy to manage inventory and cash flow, often only producing a fraction of the orders to mitigate risks associated with high return rates [4][12][16]. - The average return rate for some merchants has increased significantly, with one brand reporting a rise from 50% to 80% in returns, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards trying multiple items before returning [13][14]. - Larger brands have different pre-sale strategies, often using it as a means to gauge demand before committing to production, while smaller merchants rely on pre-sale to manage cash flow and inventory [14][15][22]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The overall scale of the clothing industry is declining, with significant drops in revenue and production reported by major companies [5][6]. - Pre-sale has become a necessary tactic for survival in a challenging market, allowing merchants to "trade time for survival space" amidst declining sales [6][23]. - The article notes that the pre-sale model in the fashion industry resembles early real estate pre-sale practices, suggesting potential for market bubbles and the need for regulatory oversight [23][24]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Manufacturers face increased complexity and costs due to frequent changes in production lines and the need to adapt to varying order sizes, which complicates the production process [17][20]. - The time required for production has increased, with manufacturers reporting longer wait times for orders due to the need for adjustments in production lines [17][19]. - The handling of returns adds additional operational costs for merchants, as each returned item requires inspection and potential refurbishment before resale [21][22].