After the big foreign bet on Indian lenders this year, older private banks get on to the 2026 radar

Core Insights - The year 2026 is expected to see mid-sized lenders and foreign capital becoming more prominent in mergers and acquisitions within the banking sector [1] - India is increasingly attracting global capital, as evidenced by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group's significant investment in Shriram Finance [2] - The focus is shifting towards upgrading the banking system rather than merely recapitalizing weak banks [5] Investment Trends - Major deals in the past year include Emirates NBD acquiring a 60% stake in RBL Bank and Blackstone's investment in Federal Bank, indicating a trend of capital flowing into banks poised for growth [3][4] - Mid-sized banks are viewed as attractive to foreign investors due to their growth potential and healthy capital buffers, with several banks reporting capital adequacy ratios well above the RBI's minimum requirement [8] Competitive Landscape - The banking sector is experiencing simultaneous consolidation and competition, with various types of banks evolving into new forms, creating a crowded ecosystem [10] - Private equity interest in Indian banks is expected to remain strong as India is one of the few global growth stories [11] Governance and Reform - Foreign investors are likely to be cautious and will require banks to improve governance and performance before committing capital [12][16] - Some banks, like South Indian Bank, are already initiating governance reforms, while others may need deeper changes to attract foreign investment [12] Funding Dynamics - Older private sector banks face challenges in accessing low-cost funding and maintaining strong current account and savings account (CASA) ratios, which affects their growth potential [14][15] - Federal Bank stands out with a CASA ratio of 31.01%, while other banks have shown mixed trends, indicating varying levels of funding pressure [14] Future Outlook - Foreign investors are looking for strong growth visibility and governance influence, which may be difficult under the current management structures of older private sector banks [16] - The industry consensus suggests that while foreign capital is available, it will be selective and contingent on banks' willingness to reform and innovate [17]