报告预计2026年我国钢材需求量小幅下降

Global Steel Demand Forecast - The global steel demand is projected to reach 1.736 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [1] - In 2025, the global steel consumption is expected to decline to 1.719 billion tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous year [1] China's Steel Demand Outlook - China's steel consumption is anticipated to be 808 million tons in 2025, marking a decline of 5.4% year-on-year, and further decreasing to 800 million tons in 2026, a drop of 1.0% [1] - The report indicates that the decline in steel consumption in China is primarily due to insufficient domestic demand, particularly from the real estate sector [1] Sector-Specific Steel Consumption - The construction sector in China is projected to consume approximately 40 million tons of steel in 2025, down 12.9% year-on-year, and about 38.4 million tons in 2026, a decrease of 4.1% [2] - The machinery sector is expected to maintain a stable growth, with steel consumption estimated at 18 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.7%, and 18.1 million tons in 2026, a growth of 0.6% [2] - The automotive industry is forecasted to consume 6.39 million tons of steel in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.9%, and 6.67 million tons in 2026, a rise of 4.4% [3] Summary of Steel Consumption by Industry - The following table summarizes the steel consumption forecast for various industries in China: | Industry | 2025 Consumption (10,000 tons) | Year-on-Year Growth (%) | 2026 Demand (10,000 tons) | Year-on-Year Growth (%) | |------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------| | Construction | 4003 | -12.9 | 3840 | -4.1 | | Machinery | 1800 | 1.7 | 1810 | 0.6 | | Automotive | 639 | 10.9 | 667 | 4.4 | | Energy | 513 | 4.1 | 499 | -2.7 | | Shipbuilding | 165 | 4.4 | 176 | 6.7 | | Home Appliances | 182 | 1.7 | 189 | 3.8 | | Railways | 48 | 0 | 47 | -2.1 | | Containers | 80 | -35.5 | 61 | -23.8 | | Hardware | 218 | 1.4 | 210 | -3.7 | | Steel-Wood Furniture | 135 | -2.2 | 133 | -1.5 | | Bicycles & Motorcycles | 58 | 9.4 | 61 | 5.2 | | Others | 202 | 4.1 | 212 | 5.0 | | Total Steel Consumption | 8043 | -5.9 | 7905 | -1.7 | [5]