上海经济学会邓志超：中美利差倒挂对中国离岸金融呈推动作用

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd China International Financial Forum highlighted the development of offshore finance in China, emphasizing the impact of geopolitical factors, interest rate differentials, and the internationalization of the RMB on the future of offshore finance [1][5]. Group 1: Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitical factors are influencing the demand for China's offshore finance, with China's global economic and political status being a key driver [3][7]. - The current geopolitical climate may reduce the willingness of the US and its allies to invest in China, which is a negative aspect, while it could also encourage the use of RMB over USD by countries closely engaged with China, presenting a historical opportunity for offshore RMB [3][7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Differentials - The current interest rate differential between China and the US stands at 2.2%, which is expected to persist for 2-3 years even if the Federal Reserve lowers rates [4][8]. - The ongoing interest rate differential is likely to accelerate China's outbound investment as capital shifts from the USD system to the RMB system [4][8]. Group 3: RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of the RMB is transitioning from a trade settlement currency to an investment currency, with offshore markets playing a significant role in areas like the Belt and Road Initiative and commodity trade [4][8]. - There is an expectation that the proportion of cross-border RMB transactions will increase, providing new development opportunities for Shanghai's free trade offshore bonds [4][8]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The Chinese government is focused on enhancing the Shanghai International Financial Center and reinforcing Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub, which will provide a foundational framework for offshore finance development [9]. - Key policy suggestions include promoting institutional innovation, deepening RMB internationalization, enhancing international cooperation, leveraging technology for efficiency and security, establishing a multi-layered risk prevention system, and fostering collaboration between offshore and onshore markets for optimal resource allocation [9].