（财经天下）2026年世界经济：不确定性与韧性共存

Core Insights - The global economy is navigating multiple challenges such as tariff impacts and geopolitical conflicts, with uncertainty expected to become the new normal in the coming years [1][2] - Despite these challenges, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that global growth will only see a slight slowdown in the next two years [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF's chief representative in China, Marshall Mills, highlighted that geopolitical, technological, and demographic changes are increasing global uncertainty, which is likely to persist for a long time [1] - Short-term economic performance is better than expected, with developed economies and emerging markets, including China, showing resilience against multiple shocks [2] - The World Bank, IMF, and Asian Development Bank have all raised their forecasts for China's economic growth by 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - Key factors influencing the international environment include the openness or closure of global trade and investment, the nature of technological revolutions, and the future of major power relations [1] - The integration of geopolitics and economics has become a central theme in national policies and corporate strategies, with clear signals of division emerging in trade, finance, and politics [1] - The upcoming investment surge driven by artificial intelligence and supportive monetary and fiscal policies is expected to continue propelling global economic growth [2] Group 3: China's Role - As the world's second-largest economy, China is viewed as a stabilizing force for the global economy, with expectations of continued high growth potential through technological innovation and improved resource allocation [3] - The UN Conference on Trade and Development and China's Ministry of Commerce have jointly released a report emphasizing China's commitment to maintaining a multilateral trade system, providing certainty and stability to the world [3] - Mills emphasized the importance of collaborative efforts among nations to develop effective policies that enhance resilience and meet the expectations of the global youth [3]