招银：日本重启加息 或对全球金融条件形成压制

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, marking the highest level since 1995, with unanimous support from nine members [1] Group 1: Policy - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is a response to high inflation and the depreciation of the yen, with November's CPI reaching 3.0%, indicating that the policy rate has lagged behind inflation [1] - The BOJ is expected to maintain a gradual rate hike approach, with a potential increase of 25 basis points twice a year, aiming to reach a policy rate of 1-1.5% by 2026 [2] Group 2: Economic Performance - Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter, with trade tensions significantly impacting investment and exports [2] - The combination of "high inflation and low interest rates" has allowed Japan to experience nominal growth that exceeds the pace of debt accumulation, leading to a projected reduction in government leverage from 231% to 215% between 2020 and 2025, with further declines expected [2] Group 3: Risks - The potential reversal of yen liquidity and the Japanese bond market may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with approximately $9 trillion in low-interest yen liquidity at risk of contraction as the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows [3] - The Japanese government's fiscal expansion, including a supplementary budget of 2.8% of nominal GDP and plans to increase defense spending to 3% of nominal GDP, may raise market concerns about long-term debt sustainability [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Japanese bonds are likely to face upward pressure on yields due to the interest rate hike, particularly at the long end, amid concerns over high debt and inflation [4] - While the interest rate hike may lead to temporary appreciation of the yen, the BOJ's cautious stance and market worries about Japan's debt suggest that the yen will likely continue to experience weak fluctuations [4] - Japanese equities are expected to maintain a strong upward trend, supported by globalization of Japanese companies and ongoing investments in AI and computing power [4]