Will 2026 See Stablecoin and Rate Cut Supercycle or Is Crypto in a Bear Market?

Market Overview - The crypto market is experiencing ongoing bearish price action, raising questions about whether it is in a bear market and if Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 before year-end [1] - Following bullish US CPI data and an interest rate cut from the Bank of England, Bitcoin saw a slight increase of +1.2%, trading just below $88,000, while the combined crypto market cap fluctuated around $3.1 trillion [2] Price Performance - Bitcoin is down -14% year-to-date, with other major cryptocurrencies like DOT, LINK, ADA, and SOL experiencing declines between -50% and -80% [4] - In Q4 2025, Bitcoin dropped over -30% after falling below $90,000, currently ranging between $85,000 and $88,000, breaking a key support level and prompting bearish sentiment among analysts [4] Analyst Predictions - Analyst Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could crash to $25,000 in 2026, citing diminishing returns in each bull run and historical declines of over 80% in previous parabolic runs [5] - Brandt notes that a 20% decline from the all-time high would bring Bitcoin's price to approximately $25,240 [5] Global Economic Factors - The Bank of Japan is raising interest rates to the highest levels in five years, adding uncertainty to global markets, particularly affecting the Yen carry trade strategy [6] - Ongoing global economic uncertainty, the war in Ukraine, and tensions between the US and Venezuela contribute to concerns about the crypto market's state in 2026 [7]