2026 Market outlook: Key trends in stocks, bonds, and crypto for investors to watch

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is entering 2026 with uncertainty stemming from a record government shutdown in 2025, which affected growth and delayed key economic data collection [2][22] - The economy is expected to experience a growth rate of 2.3% to 2.5% in 2026, following a year of only 1% to 1.5% growth in 2025 [14] Government Policy and Stimulus - Significant tax cuts and deregulation are anticipated to inject approximately $55 billion to $70 billion into the economy in the first half of 2026 [11][9] - The focus on domestic production, particularly in sectors tied to national security, such as chips and data centers, is expected to drive growth [3][4] Tariffs and Trade - Tariffs are beginning to impact corporate earnings, with approximately $250 billion in tariff revenue collected, which may affect consumer prices [6][7] - Uncertainty around tariff policies and trade restrictions is expected to continue into 2026, with companies needing to adapt to ongoing geopolitical risks [41][42] AI and Technology - The adoption of AI is seen as a critical factor for productivity growth, but there is concern about the pace of adoption across industries [23][24] - The focus on AI will also include the need for critical minerals and resources necessary for technology infrastructure, such as data centers [53][48] Bond Market and Capital Access - The bond market is facing increased supply from both public and private sectors, with significant debt issuance expected, particularly in data centers [29][30] - There is a growing competition for access to capital, which may reshape the global financial system and affect borrowing costs [50][49] Crypto Regulation - The U.S. Senate is considering the Clarity Act, which aims to establish a market structure for crypto, following earlier legislation on stable coins [33][34] - Traditional financial institutions are increasingly recognizing the potential of stable coins, which may lead to greater adoption and efficiency in financial services [35][36]