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Core Viewpoint - The Chinese air conditioning industry is undergoing an unprecedented material and process transformation, with major brands signing a self-regulatory agreement to promote the use of aluminum instead of copper in air conditioning systems [1] Industry Overview - Traditionally, air conditioning products have relied heavily on copper, with copper consumption in the domestic air conditioning industry accounting for 10.7% of China's total copper consumption, approximately 1.723 million tons in 2023 [3] - The shift to aluminum is driven by the high cost of copper, which constitutes 20%-27% of manufacturing costs, and the fact that China imports 80% of its copper while producing 60% of the world's electrolytic aluminum [4][9] Technical Challenges - The debate over aluminum replacing copper stems from aluminum's inferior thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and mechanical durability compared to copper [4] - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of critical components, such as the four-way valve, if aluminum is used instead of copper, as welding between dissimilar metals poses significant challenges [6] Cost Analysis - The cost difference between copper and aluminum is substantial; for a typical 1.5 HP air conditioner, the copper components can cost around 400 yuan, while aluminum components may only cost about 34.5 yuan, leading to a price difference of approximately 365.5 yuan per unit [8] - This cost advantage makes aluminum an attractive option for manufacturers looking to compete on price [8] Strategic Implications - The transition to aluminum is not only a cost-saving measure but also a strategic move to reduce dependency on imported copper, as China consumes 50% of the world's copper but has only 4%-5% of global copper reserves [9] - The increasing demand for copper in other industries, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, is further straining the supply available for air conditioning [12][14] Future Outlook - While aluminum's thermal and electrical properties are only 60% of those of copper, its lighter weight and lower cost present significant opportunities for innovation [24] - The automotive industry has already made strides in aluminum-copper material innovation, suggesting that similar advancements could be made in the air conditioning sector [25] - The ability of manufacturers to enhance the durability and quality of aluminum air conditioners will be crucial in determining their competitiveness in the market [25]