Christmas chocolates still costly despite falling cocoa prices – here’s why

Core Insights - Cocoa prices surged last year but are now declining rapidly, yet chocolate prices in stores are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to previous high cocoa purchases and recipe changes by manufacturers [1][3][14] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa futures reached nearly $13,000 per ton last year due to crop damage from diseases and adverse weather in major producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for over half of global cocoa supply [3][10] - This year, cocoa prices have dropped by approximately 50% to around $6,000 per ton due to improved harvests, reduced demand, and diminished concerns about shortages [3][13] Impact on Chocolate Manufacturers - Many chocolate companies, including Lambertz, have incurred significant costs from purchasing cocoa at elevated prices, with Lambertz reporting an additional €150 million ($176 million) in costs, representing about 20% of its revenue last year [4][16] - Chocolate makers are cautious about adjusting retail prices due to ongoing market instability, with some experts suggesting that relief in pricing may not be seen until 2026 [5][16] Recipe Adjustments - To manage costs, chocolate manufacturers are altering recipes by reducing cocoa content or producing smaller bars, leading to some products no longer being classified as "chocolate" [9][13] - These changes are difficult to reverse, indicating that high retail prices are likely to persist despite falling cocoa prices [9][14] Supply Chain Challenges - Cocoa farming in West Africa faces long-term structural challenges, including a lack of investment, inadequate farming tools, and disease-resistant plants, which continue to threaten supply stability [8][11] - Governments in Ghana and Ivory Coast are now supporting farmers with better pricing and farming practices, which has improved farmer incomes and allowed for better agricultural inputs [12][16]