智通财经网·2025-12-20 23:40Core Insights - The performance of power batteries in November was weak, with both exports and domestic sales underwhelming, leading to a significant drop in expected growth for the year-end new energy vehicle installations [1] - The demand for batteries is heavily reliant on high subsidies for heavy-duty electric trucks, with expectations of a sharp decline in pure electric heavy truck installations early next year [1] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 176 GWh in November, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a cumulative production of 1469 GWh from January to November, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth [3][4] Battery Production and Installation - In November 2025, the installation rate of power batteries reached 53%, with ternary batteries at 50% and lithium iron phosphate batteries at 54%, indicating a peak in battery installation activity for the year [4][5] - The cumulative production of power batteries in 2025 is projected to be 672 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 42% [9][10] - The installation of new energy vehicles in November 2025 was 1.72 million units, a 19% increase year-on-year, with pure electric passenger vehicles showing a 30% increase [13] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of battery manufacturers is dominated by CATL and BYD, which together hold a market share of approximately 65% as of 2025, while other companies have over 30% market space available [2][19] - The energy density of battery models with over 160 Wh/kg has decreased to 10% in Q4 2025, down from 13% in 2024, primarily due to the substitution of ternary batteries by lithium iron phosphate batteries [19] - The demand for batteries in the passenger vehicle segment remains strong, with pure electric passenger vehicle battery demand expected to grow by 34% in 2025, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles are projected to grow by 19% [9][10] Future Outlook - The battery production is expected to remain high in 2025, with a low starting point for installations, indicating a potential mismatch between production and demand [5] - The trend of electric vehicle manufacturers increasingly controlling battery production and supply chains is anticipated to strengthen, reflecting a shift towards a "vehicle-centric" model in the industry [16]