Crude Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Risks and Energy Demand Optimism

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing upward momentum due to heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, alongside a stock market rally that boosts economic outlook and energy demand [2][4] - The dollar index reaching a one-week high is limiting the gains in crude prices, while a bearish global supply outlook continues to exert downward pressure [2] - The crude crack spread has fallen to a six-month low, which is discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil for refining into gasoline and distillates [3] Group 2 - Escalating geopolitical tensions, including a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers by the US and potential increased sanctions on Russian energy exports, are supportive for crude prices [4] - Recent reports indicate a significant increase in crude oil stored on stationary tankers, reflecting concerns about global energy demand and expectations of an oil glut [5] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have limited Russia's crude export capabilities, exacerbating the fuel crunch and lowering global crude supplies [6] Group 3 - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026, following a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December, in response to an emerging global oil surplus [7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million barrels per day for 2026, indicating ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand [7] - OPEC's crude production has decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 29.09 million barrels per day, as the organization attempts to restore previous production cuts [7]