接任东盟轮值主席国，菲律宾欲借机掀起更大风浪？

Core Viewpoint - The Philippines has escalated provocative actions in the South China Sea since assuming the ASEAN chairmanship on October 28, 2023, aiming to advance its agenda and create tensions with China [3][4]. Group 1: Provocative Actions - The Marcos administration has intensified organized and confrontational activities in the South China Sea, directly challenging China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights [5]. - On December 11, multiple Philippine aircraft intruded into Chinese airspace over Huangyan Island, while fishing vessels engaged in disruptive activities nearby [5]. - From December 12 to 15, a significant incident occurred at the Xianbin Reef, where Philippine vessels threatened Chinese law enforcement with knives, showcasing a premeditated and aggressive approach [5][7]. Group 2: Military Alliances - The Philippines is deepening military ties with external powers such as the U.S., Japan, and Australia to bolster its position in the South China Sea [8][9]. - In November, the U.S. and the Philippines announced the formation of a joint task force to address "South China Sea crises," increasing intelligence sharing and joint patrols [9]. - The Philippines has also signed a mutual access agreement with Japan, facilitating Japanese military activities in the Philippines, and is pursuing enhanced defense cooperation with Australia [11][13]. Group 3: ASEAN Chairmanship Strategy - The Philippines plans to leverage its ASEAN chairmanship in 2026 to internationalize the South China Sea issue, aiming to create a multilateral framework that aligns with its interests [14]. - The Marcos administration intends to prioritize the negotiation of the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) in 2024, seeking to incorporate provisions that would solidify its claims [14]. - Efforts are underway to form a united front among ASEAN claimants against China, with the Philippines engaging in diplomatic outreach to align positions with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia [15]. Group 4: Economic and Geopolitical Maneuvering - The Philippines may use ASEAN economic integration as leverage to gain support from the U.S., Japan, and Australia on South China Sea issues, potentially impacting regional trade dynamics [19]. - There is a risk that the Philippines could link the Taiwan issue with the South China Sea, using its chairmanship to promote narratives that escalate regional tensions [19].