“政策底+市场底”共振 A股三大主线浮现

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is attracting more funds due to its valuation advantages and structural opportunities amid high global uncertainty, with A-shares showing signs of bottoming out as policies, structure, and fundamentals gradually improve [2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Valuation - A-shares are considered to have low correlation with other markets, providing good defensive characteristics, with low valuations and healthy cash flows making them a unique part of global asset allocation [3]. - The market sentiment has shown signs of recovery, but overall valuation levels remain attractive, as evidenced by the historically low issuance scale of equity funds, indicating that the market has not yet entered a heated state [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Transition and Interest Rates - The Chinese economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, necessitating a reduction in debt-driven growth, which may lead to a long-term downward trend in interest rates [4]. - The current real interest rate level of approximately 1.7% is seen as a significant indicator of the overall stability of the A-share market [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on balancing value and growth, with a core emphasis on long-duration assets, particularly dividend-paying stocks and high-quality companies with sustainable return on equity (ROE) growth potential [5][6]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: dividend stocks viewed as "deposit substitutes," companies with high intangible assets and a focus on technological innovation, and new consumption trends that cater to consumer experiences and emotional value [6]. Group 4: Private Sector Recovery - The recovery momentum of the private economy is a key observation point, with improved policy environments since 2023 positively impacting market dynamics, particularly in private enterprise investment confidence [8]. - Increased capital expenditure and recovering net asset returns among leading private enterprises indicate preparation for a new growth cycle, suggesting that the long-term investability of the Chinese capital market is improving [8].