资源股迎来贝塔时代 供给约束重塑“战略资产”

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising anti-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [2] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Leading Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at the current investment stage for resource stocks, and beta is more important than individual stocks [2] - Guan Haoyang's investment approach is defined as "fundamental trend investor," focusing on industry prosperity and capturing marginal changes, as the volatility of cyclical stocks is often driven by industry conditions [4] Group 2: Research Background - Guan Haoyang has nine years of experience in cyclical stock research, starting with the steel industry and expanding to various sectors including construction, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal [3] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries and the varying influences of domestic and international factors [3] Group 3: Classification of Resource Stocks - Resource stocks are categorized into four types: 1. Prosperous assets (e.g., gold, silver) with explosive earnings potential, where price tracking is more important than valuation [5] 2. Thematic assets (e.g., rare earths) that are rising in price but have not yet realized earnings, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [5] 3. Value assets (e.g., copper, phosphate) with stable prices and low valuations, where company growth and valuation matching are key [6] 4. Dividend assets (e.g., oil, coal) with stable prices but high dividend yields, where identifying assets with potential for dividend recovery is crucial [6] Group 4: Current Market Outlook - The current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, is believed to still have opportunities, primarily supported by rigid constraints on the supply side [7] - Three main constraints on the supply side include insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets due to administrative measures by various countries [8] - The restructuring of the industrial chain driven by anti-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper, as countries like Mexico, Vietnam, and India attract more investment [8]