美联储迷局

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the changing dynamics in the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Walsh emerging as the leading candidate over Kevin Hassett, amidst discussions on the Fed's independence and future policy direction [1][2][3]. - The candidate pool for the new Fed Chair has been narrowed from 11 to 5, including Hassett, Walsh, current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed, with a final decision expected in early January [2]. - Trump's preference for Walsh, who supports significant interest rate cuts, has shifted market expectations, with Walsh's nomination probability rising to approximately 47% while Hassett's has dropped to around 41% [3]. Group 2 - Walsh is characterized as a "hawkish reformer," advocating for a return to the Fed's core mission of price stability and a significant reduction of its balance sheet, arguing that current inflation is a result of past monetary policy mismanagement [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with Trump expressing a desire for the next Chair to consult him on interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the potential political influence on monetary policy [5]. - The Fed's recent announcement of a $40 billion monthly bond purchase plan has led to revised debt issuance forecasts, indicating a commitment to support Treasury financing, which may further blur the lines between monetary and fiscal policy [6]. Group 3 - Recent inflation data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming year, with the CPI showing a lower-than-expected increase, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy [7]. - Waller, a current Fed policymaker, has indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, emphasizing a gradual approach to policy adjustments while acknowledging the current economic landscape [8]. - Market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook for the Fed's future actions, with analysts predicting potential rate cuts in 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market and inflation dynamics [9].