七位券商首席研判2026年市场：A股、港股大概率继续上行 “科技+出海”仍是主线

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a structural bull market in 2026, driven by factors such as policy support, domestic demand stabilization, and industrial upgrades [4][8][11]. Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend in 2025, with significant contributions from the technology sector and companies expanding overseas [4][5]. - Key sectors that exceeded expectations included Chinese companies going global and the commercialization of AI, with notable growth in overseas AI demand [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment was influenced by improved liquidity and a shift in policy, leading to a bullish outlook for the A-share market [5][6]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - A-share earnings growth is anticipated to show a pattern of low-to-high progression, while the Hong Kong market may see a style shift towards core assets [8][11]. - The "New Four Bulls" logic is expected to drive the market, focusing on capital inflows, technological innovation, institutional reforms, and consumption upgrades [8][11]. - The overall economic growth is projected to remain within a reasonable range, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of real estate on the economy [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The primary investment themes for 2026 include "Technology + Going Global," with a focus on AI applications and companies expanding overseas [12][13]. - Key sectors to watch include high-end manufacturing, new energy, and industries benefiting from global market growth, such as machinery and electronics [13][14]. - The market is expected to transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one driven by earnings improvement, with a more balanced sector performance anticipated [19][20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trends - The market is likely to see a convergence of performance across sectors, moving from a phase of significant differentiation to a more balanced approach [18][19]. - The focus will shift towards sectors with high growth potential, as the market transitions from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) [18][19]. - The structural characteristics of the market will continue to be influenced by technological advancements and policy support, with a gradual reduction in the impact of traditional sectors [19][20].