现房销售占比冲破35%，买房告别“开盲盒”？

Core Insights - A significant shift in the home buying model is underway across multiple cities in China, with policies mandating the sale of completed residential properties [2][3] - The proportion of completed residential property sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33% at the beginning of this year, with over 30 provinces and cities implementing pilot programs or supportive policies for completed sales [2][3] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has identified the promotion of completed property sales as a core task for the next phase of the real estate industry, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" for high-quality development [3][8] - Cities like Xinyang in Henan and Jingmen in Hubei have introduced policies to ensure that newly sold land for residential projects must follow the completed sales model [6][7] Market Trends - By 2024, the share of completed property sales is projected to reach approximately 30.84%, with a rise to 35.4% in the first nine months of this year [3] - In Shenzhen, the proportion of completed sales has increased significantly, with 30.9% of new residential sales being completed sales in the first half of 2025, up from 14.6% in the first half of 2023 [11] Challenges and Considerations - The transition to completed sales is expected to face challenges, including the need for innovative financial products tailored to this model, such as "completed property development loans" [12] - Developers will need to adjust their financing structures to accommodate longer cash flow cycles, as the return period shifts from approximately 6 months for pre-sales to 2-3 years for completed sales [11][12]