Home sales in USA are up for the month but down for the year

Core Insights - Sales of previously occupied US homes increased by 0.5% in November compared to October, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units, but fell by 1% year-over-year [2] - The national median sales price for homes rose by 1.2% in November to $409,200, marking the highest price for any November since 1999 [4] - Home sales have been declining, with a 0.5% decrease in sales through the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period last year [2] Sales Performance - Existing home sales rose to an annual rate of 4.13 million units in November, slightly below the expected 4.14 million [2] - Sales of condominiums have decreased by 6.0% this year, contributing to the overall slowdown in home sales [3] - The forecast for existing home sales in 2025 suggests a potential slight decline unless December figures improve [3] Price Trends - Home prices have increased for 29 consecutive months, despite a sluggish housing market that began in 2022 [5] - The current inventory of unsold homes is 1.43 million, down 5.9% from October but up 7.5% from November last year, indicating a tight market [9] Mortgage Rates and Affordability - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.17% at the end of October, the lowest in over a year, providing some relief to homebuyers [6] - Affordability remains a significant challenge, particularly for first-time buyers, who accounted for only 30% of home sales last month, down from the historical average of 40% [7] Market Inventory - The current inventory translates to a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, which is below the traditional balanced market range of 5 to 6 months [9] - The number of homes for sale in November decreased from the previous month, despite a wider selection available compared to a year ago [8] Future Outlook - Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, forecasts a 14% increase in existing home sales next year, which is more optimistic than other forecasts ranging from 1.7% to 9% [10] - Economists expect the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to remain slightly above 6% next year [10]