从“图纸买房”到“眼见为实”：现房销售占比冲破35%，买房告别“开盲盒”？

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in the home buying model is underway across various cities in China, with policies promoting the sale of completed residential properties gaining traction [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Developments - Multiple cities, including Pingjiang in Hunan, Zhangye in Gansu, and Xinyang in Henan, have implemented policies mandating that newly sold residential projects on newly acquired land must be sold as completed properties [1][5]. - As of early 2023, the proportion of completed residential sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33%, with over 30 provinces and cities initiating pilot programs or supportive policies for completed sales [1][2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has identified promoting the completed sales system as a core task for the next phase of real estate industry development [2][10]. Group 2: Market Trends - In 2024, the estimated share of completed residential sales is projected to be approximately 30.84%, with this figure rising to 35.4% in the first nine months of the year [2]. - The trend towards completed sales is expected to become the new norm in China's residential property market, reflecting a shift towards higher quality development in the real estate sector [2][10]. - Data from Shenzhen indicates a significant increase in the proportion of completed sales, with 30.9% of new residential sales being completed properties in the first half of 2025, up from 14.6% in the first half of 2023 [9]. Group 3: Challenges and Implications - The transition from pre-sale to completed sales presents challenges, including increased financial pressure on developers due to longer cash flow cycles, which may extend from approximately 6 months to 2-3 years [10]. - The implementation of completed sales is expected to require innovative financial tools and adjustments in land transfer methods to alleviate developers' financial burdens [10][11]. - The shift to completed sales is seen as a critical area for innovation in the real estate development, financing, and sales processes, with potential impacts on market dynamics and developer strategies [7][10].