住建部最新部署，2026年房地产走向定了，对房价影响巨大

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 real estate development direction is crucial for public welfare and economic stability, marking a transition from a model of universal price increases to a new phase of high-quality development characterized by stable totals and structural differentiation [1][6]. Policy Objectives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) has set four core objectives: stabilize the market, prevent risks, optimize supply, and promote transformation, indicating a shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" [1][3]. Demand-Side Measures - The policy emphasizes a continued loose stance on demand, including reforms to the housing provident fund system to lower barriers for first-time and upgrading homebuyers, such as increasing loan limits and facilitating inter-city loan recognition [3][4]. Supply-Side Measures - On the supply side, the focus is on controlling new land supply in low-capacity cities, encouraging the conversion of existing properties into affordable housing, and promoting the construction of high-quality homes to meet market demand [4][6]. Market Trends - The real estate market is expected to enter a stabilization phase in 2026, with a predicted reduction in the overall decline of housing transactions to 5.0%, an improvement from 6.8% in 2025 [6][7]. Core cities are likely to see demand stabilize, while lower-tier cities may continue to face significant inventory pressures [6][7]. Price Dynamics - Price trends will vary by city tier, with core cities likely experiencing stable or slightly rising prices due to improved demand and supply conditions, while second and third-tier cities may see price adjustments due to inventory pressures [7][8]. Risk Management - The dual focus on risk prevention and model transformation is expected to provide a stabilizing effect on prices, with measures such as debt restructuring for troubled real estate companies and the promotion of a dual-track system for affordable and market housing [8][9]. Strategic Recommendations - Different market participants should adapt their strategies according to policy directions, with homebuyers in core cities encouraged to enter the market during this policy window, while developers should shift focus from expansion to enhancing product quality and risk management [9]. Local governments are advised to implement tailored policies to foster a healthy market cycle [9]. Overall Outlook - The MOHURD's 2026 real estate deployment aims for "steady progress" in high-quality development, guiding the market back to its residential attributes and achieving supply-demand balance, with a new paradigm of "core stability, regional differentiation, and quality premium" expected to emerge [9].