兴证策略张启尧团队：本轮躁动行情有哪些潜在启动信号？

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased volatility since December, reflecting a series of important events impacting liquidity and fundamental expectations, leading to a cautious and speculative sentiment among investors [1][27] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting and the domestic Central Economic Work Conference have set a more favorable overall tone than market expectations, laying a good foundation for a potential market rally [1][32] - The U.S. employment and inflation data released this week did not trigger further pessimism, instead providing more room for the Fed to consider further easing, with the November unemployment rate slightly rising and CPI data significantly below expectations [1][30] Group 2 - Japan's recent interest rate hike of 25 basis points did not lead to the anticipated liquidity shock from carry trade unwinding, as market expectations were already priced in [4][30] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that further data would be needed before making additional rate decisions, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [4][30] - The convergence of various international events affecting liquidity expectations, combined with a supportive domestic policy environment, is expected to shift investor behavior from cautiousness to actively seeking opportunities [6][32] Group 3 - Historical patterns indicate that market rallies often require a catalytic event, with potential signals for the current rally categorized into three types: strong macro policy shifts, year-end market performance stabilization, and early-year market dynamics [7][33] - The current market conditions align with the second category, where strong performance throughout the year leads to a rally after year-end disturbances are resolved [7][33] - Key indicators to watch for potential rally signals include the possibility of interest rate cuts and improvements in fundamental data such as PPI, PMI, and corporate earnings forecasts [17][19] Group 4 - The investment strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from economic recovery and supportive policies, particularly in cyclical industries and new consumption trends [20][22] - High-growth sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing are expected to lead the market rally, supported by favorable liquidity conditions and risk appetite [24][22] - The market is anticipated to transition from a balanced style to favoring small-cap and technology growth sectors as the rally progresses [18][24]