招商策略：A股跨年行情加春季躁动或将拉开帷幕

Market Outlook - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is brewing, with signals indicating that it has already begun. Key factors include the expected acceleration of central budget investments and significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in A500 ETF, providing stable incremental funds to the market [2][36][38] - The main focus of the market is likely to be on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50, with an emphasis on cyclical sectors such as industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation [2][36][38] Economic Indicators - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales narrowed, with a total of 456,067 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 4.0%. The retail sales excluding automobiles reached 411,637 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [43][57] - Major enterprises in the machinery sector showed improvement in sales, with loader sales increasing by 32.1% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and road rollers also showing significant growth [49][51] Investment Trends - The A500 ETF has seen substantial net subscriptions, with a single-day subscription amount reaching a historical high of 7.1 billion yuan, indicating that significant institutional investors are entering the capital market through this product [13][36] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has been strengthening, suggesting that overseas funds are beginning to flow into the domestic market, which is often associated with expectations of positive changes in domestic policies [15][16][36] Sector Performance - The retail sector has been supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with notable growth in the commercial retail sector driven by holiday consumption expectations [40] - The technology sector, particularly AI, remains a strong growth engine for the economy, with Hong Kong stocks showing high investment value in technology companies that are not present in A-shares [29][38] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with large-cap value stocks outperforming small-cap stocks as investors become more conservative due to year-end performance assessments [31][39] - The upcoming earnings forecast disclosure period in January is expected to increase pressure on small-cap stocks, while large-cap blue-chip stocks are likely to attract more investment due to their stability [33][36]