美国再扣委内瑞拉油轮，学者：美军若入侵或陷“第二场越战”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, is intensifying pressure on Venezuela through military actions and sanctions, aiming for regime change while using the pretext of a "war on drugs" to justify its actions [1][3][9]. Group 1: Military Actions and Sanctions - The U.S. Coast Guard seized a Panama-flagged oil tanker near Venezuela, marking the second such seizure in ten days, which Venezuela condemned as a serious act of piracy violating international law [1]. - Since September, U.S. military operations in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific have resulted in hundreds of deaths, with multiple naval vessels deployed near Venezuela [1]. - The Trump administration has threatened to impose a "complete and total blockade" on all oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, indicating a strategy to tighten sanctions on Venezuela's oil trade [3][4]. Group 2: Political Objectives - The Trump administration's actions are aimed at destabilizing the Venezuelan government, which has been at odds with the U.S. since it came to power in 1999, with sanctions imposed since 2006 [3][4]. - The ultimate goal is to reinforce U.S. influence in Latin America by undermining leftist movements and reasserting Monroe Doctrine principles [3][9]. Group 3: Military Readiness and Challenges - The U.S. has amassed 15,000 troops and deployed the USS Ford aircraft carrier near Venezuela, marking one of the largest military deployments in the Caribbean in decades [4]. - However, there is significant public and political resistance within the U.S. against initiating a new ground war, complicating the feasibility of a large-scale military invasion [4][6]. - Venezuela's military capabilities include 63,000 army personnel, 25,500 navy personnel, and 11,500 air force personnel, indicating a robust defense against potential U.S. military actions [6]. Group 4: Regional and International Reactions - Several countries, including Brazil and Mexico, have expressed concerns over U.S. military actions, with Mexico's president offering to mediate between the U.S. and Venezuela [6]. - Russia has warned the U.S. against making "fatal mistakes" regarding Venezuela, indicating international opposition to U.S. military threats [6]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The U.S. strategy of using drug trafficking as a justification for military intervention is not new, as similar threats have been made towards Mexico and Colombia [7][9]. - The overarching aim is to strengthen U.S. control over the Western Hemisphere and counteract China's influence in the region [9].