年内铂金价格涨幅何以跑赢黄金

Group 1 - Platinum prices have surged significantly, reaching a peak of $1987 per ounce on December 19, marking the highest level since July 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 110%, compared to gold's 65% increase [1][2] - The primary driver of platinum price increase is the supply-demand dynamics, with supply constraints due to aging mines, power shortages, and extreme weather in South Africa, which accounts for over 70% of global platinum production [2] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a significant shortage in the platinum market for the third consecutive year, with an expected shortfall of 22 tons this year [2] Group 2 - Demand for platinum is growing, particularly in green energy sectors such as hydrogen energy and fuel cells, which enhances its industrial value beyond traditional precious metal pricing frameworks [2] - The rising gold prices have triggered a "substitution effect," leading consumers and investors to turn to platinum as a more cost-effective alternative, significantly increasing its demand [2] - The WPIC projects that platinum jewelry demand will increase by 7% to 67 tons by 2025, the highest level since 2018, while investment demand is expected to rise by 6% to 23 tons [3] Group 3 - China is identified as a key driver for platinum bar and coin demand, with projections indicating a 47% increase to 16 tons by 2025, of which 13 tons will come from the Chinese market [3] - The recent listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange enhances China's influence and pricing power in the global platinum group metals market [3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has lowered the holding costs for precious metals, prompting a shift of funds from higher-valued gold and silver to relatively undervalued platinum [3]