日本加息“靴子”落地 机构研判全球资产配置再平衡

Group 1: Japan's Interest Rate Hike - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - This marks the fourth rate hike since the normalization of monetary policy began in March 2024, with the last hike occurring in January of the same year [1] - Analysts noted that the market's reaction was calm, with major indices like the Nikkei 225 and Nasdaq showing gains following the announcement, contrasting with the severe market reaction seen in August 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The narrative surrounding Japan's interest rate hike has shifted, with many institutions viewing it as a manageable rebalancing rather than a trigger for market turmoil [1][2] - The calm market response is attributed to the difference in market conditions compared to the previous rate hike, where external factors like disappointing U.S. employment data contributed to volatility [2][3] - Analysts believe that the current market environment is more stable, reducing the likelihood of a repeat of the "Black Monday" experienced in August 2024 [2][3] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Despite recent fluctuations, the underlying logic for a positive mid-term outlook for A-shares remains intact, with potential for better positioning in the first half of 2026 [4][5] - External factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and concerns over AI market dynamics, have influenced market sentiment but have not altered the fundamental growth narrative [4][5] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from global capital reallocating towards undervalued assets, particularly in light of China's advancements in AI and technology [5][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Foreign institutions are optimistic about A-share equity investment opportunities in 2026, citing attractive valuations compared to developed markets [6][7] - Key investment themes identified include AI, commodities, and sectors benefiting from structural changes, such as energy and finance [7][8] - The anticipated economic growth in China and improvements in corporate earnings are expected to provide fundamental support for the A-share market [6][7]