李艳：透过“AI泡沫”之争，看何为历史必然

Group 1: Core Perspectives on AI Bubble Debate - The debate around the "AI bubble" is characterized by contrasting views, with some investors concerned about inflated valuations and others optimistic about long-term technological advancements [1][2][3] - The "bubble theorists" argue that there is a significant disconnect between capital market valuations and actual performance, citing a capital expenditure to revenue ratio of 6:1 in the US AI industry, which is higher than historical bubbles [1] - Conversely, "anti-bubble theorists" maintain that the strategic investments by major nations and the expanding application of AI from consumer to industrial sectors indicate a stable and long-term growth trajectory for the industry [2][3] Group 2: Structural Imbalances in AI Application - There is a structural imbalance in the AI industry, with upstream hardware remaining robust while mid-tier model developers struggle, and many downstream applications failing to achieve profitability [4] - Approximately 80% of companies deploying AI have not seen net profit increases, leading to divergent views on the industry's future profitability [4] - Optimists believe that current investments are essential for nurturing the industry, while pessimists fear that this imbalance could lead to financial crises reminiscent of past bubbles [4] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Landscape - AI governance is still in an exploratory phase, with significant differences in regulatory approaches across countries, affecting the stability of expectations for multinational companies [4] - The US has pursued a deregulation strategy, while the EU emphasizes risk-based regulation, and China focuses on balancing development with security [4] Group 4: Understanding the AI Bubble - Traditional financial theories define bubbles as deviations of asset prices from intrinsic values, but the intrinsic value of AI is challenging to measure using conventional methods [5][6] - The emergence of an AI bubble may not necessarily be negative, as it represents capital's vote on future potential, providing necessary funding for technological development [5][6] - The core of the AI bubble debate involves a complex interplay between technological change, capital logic, short-term gains, and long-term value [6]