【悠哉油斋】利多匮乏，油脂破位下跌

Core Viewpoint - The oilseed market is experiencing a return to weakness after a brief rebound, driven by a lack of supportive fundamentals and concerns over inventory levels, particularly in palm oil and soybean oil [2][15]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Analysis - MPOA's adjustment of November palm oil production and subsequent flooding speculation initially triggered a short-covering rally, but the market failed to sustain this momentum due to disappointing export figures leading to unexpected inventory accumulation of 2.84 million tons in November [2][16]. - High-frequency data indicates that palm oil production for December is expected to continue accumulating, with SPPOMA forecasting a 2.97% decrease in production for the first half of December compared to the previous month, which is significantly lower than the five-year average seasonal decline of 9.5% [5][19]. - The market anticipates that palm oil inventories could exceed 3 million tons in December, further suppressing bullish sentiment in the palm oil market [5][19]. Group 2: Soybean Oil Market Dynamics - The EPA's decision to delay the final rule for the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) until the first quarter of next year has created uncertainty in the U.S. soybean oil market, dampening buying enthusiasm [8][22]. - The U.S. soybean crushing volume has reached a record high of 642 million bushels from September to November, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, contributing to rising soybean oil inventories which reached 1.513 billion pounds at the end of November [8][22]. - The lack of clarity regarding biodiesel policies is expected to continue suppressing procurement activity at biodiesel plants, leading to further inventory pressure on soybean oil [12][26]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Overall, the oilseed market is characterized by a lack of bullish factors, with palm oil inventories at a record high and soybean oil facing increasing inventory pressures due to uncertain biodiesel policies [12][26]. - The focus for the short to medium term will be on palm oil's ability to reduce inventories and the pricing dynamics in the palm oil market, particularly in relation to Indian purchasing behavior and Indonesian palm oil pricing [12][26].