正信期货：弱现实压制，油脂整体走势较弱

Group 1: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market is facing downward pressure as supply increases while demand decreases, leading to a significant rise in inventory levels [2][3] - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover due to favorable weather conditions, with cumulative production reaching 18.45 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, a 3.4% increase year-on-year [2][3] - Despite the production increase, exports have declined by 9.2% year-on-year, resulting in the highest inventory level since March 2019 at 2.835 million tons [2][3] Group 2: Indonesian Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil production for the first ten months of 2025 reached 43.94 million tons, a nearly 10% increase year-on-year, with consumption also rising by 5.2% [3][4] - The country is experiencing a tightening of regulations on illegal plantations, which may slow down future production growth [3][4] - The biodiesel policy in Indonesia is expected to maintain high consumption levels of crude palm oil (CPO), keeping inventories low [4] Group 3: Canola Market - Global canola supply is expected to increase significantly, with Canadian canola production projected to reach 20-22 million tons in 2025, while global production is estimated to rise by 9.3 million tons [7][17] - The easing of trade tensions between China and Canada is anticipated to improve canola oil supply, although Canadian exports have dropped by 42.1% year-on-year [7][17] - The market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to expectations of increased supply, particularly from Australia and Russia [7][17] Group 4: Soybean Market - Following the thaw in US-China relations, China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, although domestic demand remains weak [8][9] - The domestic soybean oil market is under pressure, with inventories exceeding 1.1 million tons, as the supply remains ample [8][9] - The lack of new developments regarding biodiesel policies is contributing to the downward trend in soybean prices [8][9]