Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-21 23:45Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from a price war to a focus on value creation, with "anti-involution" becoming the consensus for overcoming challenges in 2025 [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The industry has faced severe losses due to overcapacity, with losses reaching 31.039 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, and a loss of 6.422 billion yuan in Q3, despite a 46.7% reduction from Q2 [2] - The utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation in China was only 94.9% from January to October, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on consumption [2] Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" consensus has led to the establishment of a multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration acquisition platform, promoting capacity optimization through a "debt acquisition + flexible capacity utilization" model [3] - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale expansion to value creation, driven by the "136 Document" which encourages a market-oriented transformation [3][4] Technological Innovation - Companies are focusing on technological innovation to create sustainable value for customers, with an emphasis on optimizing product performance and reducing impurities in silicon wafers [4][5] - The current evaluation system in the photovoltaic industry is criticized for being short-sighted, focusing too much on standard testing conditions rather than real-world performance metrics [5] Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to eliminate outdated capacity by 2026 through market-oriented and legal means, while also establishing a price monitoring mechanism [6] - The National Energy Administration is accelerating the implementation of the "136 Document" to facilitate the transition from guaranteed quantity and price to market-driven dynamics [6] Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a recovery in the second half of 2026, driven by efficiency and power improvements, with companies that possess these advantages likely to navigate the cycle successfully [9] - The industry's ability to exit the adjustment period depends on three key variables: the execution of industry self-discipline, the speed of technological innovation, and the improvement of policy and market mechanisms [8][9]