牛弹琴：对墨西哥小动作，中国已准备了三大招

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions of Mexico regarding tariffs on non-free trade partners, particularly affecting China, are significant and warrant attention due to their potential implications for bilateral trade and international relations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Mexico's Tariff Actions - In August 2023, Mexico's president signed a decree to raise the most favored nation tariffs on 392 product categories, with rates up to 25%, effective until July 31, 2025, primarily impacting China, South Korea, and India [12][46]. - The tariff policy transitioned from temporary measures to a long-term policy after congressional approval, indicating a shift in Mexico's trade strategy [14][49]. - A broader tax proposal involving approximately 1,400 items with rates between 10% and 50% was submitted to Congress in September 2025, although some rates were adjusted downwards due to China's strong opposition [15][48]. Group 2: China's Response - China has maintained a rational and restrained response to Mexico's tariff increases, initially advising Mexico to adhere to free trade principles and warning against the negative impacts of higher tariffs on downstream industries [17][50]. - Following Mexico's legislative actions, China escalated its response by initiating a trade investment barrier investigation against Mexico's proposed tariff increases, marking a shift from verbal warnings to legal actions [19][52]. - By December 2025, China's stance further intensified, categorizing Mexico's actions as unilateral and protectionist, and indicating that necessary measures would be taken to protect Chinese enterprises' rights [21][54]. Group 3: Future Implications - China is expected to employ a multi-layered strategy in response to Mexico's tariffs, including legal actions at the WTO and potential bilateral negotiations [24][57]. - Possible countermeasures may include anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against specific Mexican products, as well as targeted actions against products exported to China [26][60]. - Additionally, China may issue investment risk warnings to its enterprises regarding investments in Mexico, potentially impacting Mexico's efforts to attract foreign investment [29][62].