警惕美股动荡！FOMO与泡沫恐惧交织 华尔街预测2026年热门押注仍是“波动性交易”

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in 2024, driven by investor FOMO regarding AI and concerns about a potential bubble [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The past 18 months have been characterized by significant sell-offs and rapid rebounds in the US stock market, a trend that may continue until 2026 [1] - The core of the AI investment boom is technology companies, which have a substantial impact on market dynamics [1] - Despite the divergence in performance between tech stocks and other sectors of the S&P 500, the rise in tech stocks has mitigated overall market volatility [1] Group 2: Volatility Indicators - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is expected to rise sharply if declines in chip stocks spread [1] - UBS strategist Kieran Diamond notes that 2025 will be dominated by market rotation and a few leading stocks, rather than a broad risk-on or risk-off sentiment [1] - The anticipated volatility in 2026 is attributed to the instability that often accompanies asset bubbles [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Holding Nasdaq 100 volatility contracts is seen as a key strategy for managing dual risks in the current market environment [3] - UBS's Maxwell Grinacoff emphasizes that betting on volatility in the Nasdaq 100 index will outperform in any scenario [3] - The popularity of dispersion trading strategies, which bet on rising individual stock volatility and shrinking index volatility, is expected to increase [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The influx of capital into dispersion strategies is likely to keep demand for individual stock volatility relatively high [11] - Investors are exploring various strategies to gain a competitive edge, as traditional dispersion strategies have become widely known [9][11] - A basic volatility mechanism model has been introduced to dynamically switch between long and short volatility trades [11][12] Group 5: Economic Factors - The overall low leverage of US corporations and the onset of a new re-leveraging cycle driven by AI are expected to increase credit spreads and stock volatility [12] - The importance of hedging tail risks is emphasized for investors in 2026, given the conflicting narratives surrounding AI and the role of the US government in market volatility [12]