中信证券：2026年银行业净息差降幅收窄至4bps左右

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the overall interest rate policy in 2026 is expected to be moderate, with a potential reduction of policy rates by 10 basis points possibly occurring once or twice [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The central economic work conference and recent statements from the People's Bank suggest a gentle approach to interest rate policy in 2026 [1] - A reduction in policy rates by 10 basis points is anticipated, potentially occurring once or twice [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Impact - The concentration of medium- and long-term deposits maturing on the liability side will aid in cost control for banks [1] - The frequency of LPR adjustments is expected to decrease, coupled with a slowdown in terminal interest rate declines, making the reduction in yields manageable [1] Group 3: Financial Performance Projections - The net interest margin for the banking industry is projected to narrow by approximately 4 basis points in 2026, marking the first annual decline in single digits since 2022 [1] - As a result, the annual operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks are expected to improve year-on-year growth rates to around 3.3% and 2.8%, respectively, laying a solid foundation for stable returns in the sector [1]