中信证券：超长债仍具配置价值 建议关注短期利率超调后的配置机会

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are primarily attributed to the pressure on the liability side of commercial banks, influenced by regulatory assessments and seasonal factors, while the central bank's monetary policy framework reform may gradually offset these pressures [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The volatility in long-term and ultra-long-term bonds has increased, mainly due to pressures faced by commercial banks [1] - Regulatory assessments and seasonal factors contribute to the current pressures on banks' liabilities [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's ongoing monetary policy framework reform is expected to gradually counterbalance the pressures on the banking sector [1] - The potential implementation of expansionary monetary tools, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, remains to be seen [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Considering the manageable fiscal pressures anticipated for the next year, ultra-long-term bonds still hold certain investment significance in the long run [1] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to investment opportunities following short-term interest rate adjustments [1]