中国票据市场2025年回顾与2026年展望

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bill market is expected to achieve solid progress in institutional improvement, infrastructure enhancement, and service to the real economy in 2025, marking the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and setting the stage for high-quality development in 2026 under the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2][17]. Group 1: Market Performance and Growth - In 2025, the bill market maintained a steady growth trajectory, with acceptance and discounting volumes both achieving double-digit increases. From January to November, the total acceptance amount reached 38.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, while the discounting amount was 30.62 trillion yuan, up 13.03% [4]. - The participation of small and micro enterprises in the bill market has significantly increased, reflecting a robust demand for financing and a more active market [3][4]. - The acceptance balance stood at 20.88 trillion yuan, growing by 8.34% year-on-year, while the discount balance reached 16.16 trillion yuan, up 12.10%, indicating enhanced support for the real economy [4]. Group 2: Market Structure and Dynamics - The bill market exhibited a clear structural differentiation, with commercial bills showing a notable increase in acceptance amount by 26.43%, while financial bills continued to shrink [4]. - The secondary market saw a decline in trading activity, with total trading volume dropping by 19.04% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant contraction in pledge-style repurchase transactions [5][6]. - Financial institutions are increasingly focusing on primary market operations, reducing reliance on secondary market transactions, which indicates a shift towards direct service for enterprise financing needs [6]. Group 3: Institutional and Regulatory Developments - The bill market's institutional framework made significant strides in 2025, with the issuance of guidelines to standardize supply chain financial services and enhance support for small and micro enterprises [7]. - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have initiated reforms to clarify the legal status of electronic and supply chain bills, aiming to improve the regulatory environment and stimulate market activity [25]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Innovations - The integration of artificial intelligence into the bill market is accelerating, enhancing transaction efficiency, risk management, and service experience [13][14]. - The launch of the comprehensive service platform by the Shanghai Bill Exchange has improved transparency and accessibility for small and micro enterprises, facilitating better financing options [8][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook for 2026 - The bill market is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, with acceptance and discounting volumes expected to increase by over 10% year-on-year, driven by ongoing support for small and micro enterprises [18]. - The market is likely to maintain a low interest rate environment, with seasonal fluctuations expected to persist, influenced by regulatory assessments and liquidity conditions [19]. - The bill market will increasingly align with national strategies, focusing on technology, green finance, and inclusive finance, thereby enhancing its role in supporting the real economy [20][23].