中信建投： 光纤光缆行业趋势向好

Core Viewpoint - The domestic G652D fiber optic prices have been steadily increasing since Q3 2023, indicating strong industry demand and tight overall supply, with robust overseas demand and export performance [1] Group 1: Export Performance - China's optical fiber rod exports from January to November 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 87.78% in volume and 77.36% in value; optical fiber exports increased by 48.74% in volume and 63.37% in value [1] - The growth rate has notably accelerated since October 2023, reflecting strong global demand for optical fibers and cables [1] Group 2: Market Demand Drivers - Strong growth in exports is attributed to robust global demand, particularly from the AI sector, with Corning's Enterprise Network business in North America experiencing year-on-year growth of 106%, 81%, and 58% from Q1 to Q3 2025 [1] - The demand for G657 fiber is also driven by applications such as battlefield drones, which consume significant amounts of this type of fiber [1] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - The demand for optical fibers is expected to continue growing due to the anticipated increase in global optical module demand, projected to rise significantly through 2026 [1] - There is an expectation that the demand for optical fibers will scale up by 2027, with Data Center Interconnect (DCI) also contributing to substantial demand [1] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Concerns about the supply-demand balance in the optical fiber and cable market persist, but it is believed that manufacturers will approach capacity expansion more rationally compared to the imbalances seen in 2019 [1] - The current demand recovery, coupled with rising prices, may lead to both profit and valuation increases for leading companies in the industry [1]