光大期货：12月22日金融日报

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced moderate fluctuations last week, with Wind All A index down by 0.15% and an average daily trading volume of 1.76 trillion yuan [3] - The implied volatility for options slightly increased, with the 1000 IV at 18.56% and 300 IV at 16.03% [3] - The financing balance decreased by 7.6 billion yuan to 2.475 trillion yuan, indicating a slight contraction in market liquidity [3] Stock Index Analysis - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating within the range established since October, with limited risk of a significant downturn [3] - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth for the CSI 1000 in Q3 was approximately 2.6%, providing substantial support for its current valuation [3] - Conditions for a spring rally are not currently prominent, suggesting that the upcoming market movements may not be as vigorous as in previous years [3] Sector Performance - The market is increasingly focused on sectors with performance certainty, particularly in technology [4] - Key themes include high ROE, strong year-on-year revenue growth, and robust operating cash flow [4] - Sectors such as network connection, service robots, industrial internet services, consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, gold, tungsten, and PCB are expected to have strong performance certainty by 2026 [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the central bank restarting 14-day reverse repos, indicating a stabilizing attitude towards liquidity [5][18] - As of December 19, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.38%, 1.60%, 1.83%, and 2.23% respectively, reflecting slight decreases from the previous week [5][18] - The net issuance of government bonds was negative at -192 billion yuan, with a net issuance of local bonds at 281 billion yuan [7][20] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference set a positive tone for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [21] - The conference highlighted the importance of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment, with plans to increase central budget investments [22] - Inflation is expected to gradually recover, supported by policies aimed at maintaining liquidity and promoting consumption [22] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices rose by 0.97% to $4341.058 per ounce, while silver surged by 8.28% to $67.049 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [23] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to approximately 64.7, indicating a strong performance in precious metals [23] - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding precious metals, with expectations for continued upward momentum [25]